Evaluation of modelling approaches for predicting the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon stocks at the national scale

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a major role in the global carbon budget. It can act as a source or a sink of atmospheric carbon, thereby possibly influencing the course of climate change. Improving the tools that model the spatial distributions of SOC stocks at national scales is a priority, both for monitoring changes in SOC and as an input for global carbon cycles studies. In this paper, we compare and evaluate two recent and promising modelling approaches. First, we considered several increasingly complex boosted regression trees (BRT), a convenient and efficient multiple regression model from the statistical learning field. Further, we considered a robust geostatistical approach coupled to the BRT models. Testing the different approaches was performed on the dataset from the French Soil Monitoring Network, with a consistent cross-validation procedure. We showed that when a limited number of predictors were included in the BRT model, the standalone BRT predictions were significantly improved by robust geostatistical modelling of the residuals. However, when data for several SOC drivers were included, the standalone BRT model predictions were not significantly improved by geostatistical modelling. Therefore, in this latter situation, the BRT predictions might be considered adequate without the need for geostatistical modelling, provided that i) care is exercised in model fitting and validating, and ii) the dataset does not allow for modelling of local spatial autocorrelations, as is the case for many national systematic sampling schemes

Hybrid (bolted/bonded)joints applied to aeronautic parts: analytical two-dimensional model of a single-lap joint

The mechanical behavior of hybrid (bolted/bonded) joints is investigated. The joints under study are balanced single-lap joints, and an elastic behavior of the materials is assumed. A fully parametric analytical two-dimensional model, based on the Finite Element Method, is presented. A special Finite Element ("Bonded Beams" element) is computed in order to simulate the bonded adherends. The simulation of fasteners is examined through experimental and numerical approaches. Good agreement was found between the experimental and numerical results

A method for modeling the effects of climate and land use changes on erosion and sustainability of soil in a Mediterranean watershed (Languedoc, France)

Global climate and land use changes could strongly affect soil erosion and the capability of soils to sustain agriculture and in turn impact regional or global food security. The objective of our study was to develop a method to assess soil sustainability to erosion under changes in land use and climate. The method was applied in a typical mixed Mediterranean landscape in a wine-growing watershed (75 km(2)) within the Languedoc region (La Peyne, France) for two periods: a first period with the current climate and land use and a second period with the climate and land use scenarios at the end of the twenty-first century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B future rainfall scenarios from the Mete France General circulation model was coupled with four contrasting land use change scenarios that were designed using a spatially-explicit land use change model. Mean annual erosion rate was estimated with an expert-based soil erosion model. Soil life expectancy was assessed using soil depth. Soil erosion rate and soil life expectancy were combined into a sustainability index. The median simulated soil erosion rate for the current period was 3.5 t/ha/year and the soil life expectancy was 273 years, showing a low sustainability of soils. For the future period with the same land use distribution, the median simulated soil erosion rate was 4.2 t/ha/year and the soil life expectancy was 249 years. The results show that soil erosion rate and soil life expectancy are more sensitive to changes in land use than to changes in precipitation. Among the scenarios tested, institution of a mandatory grass cover in vineyards seems to be an efficient means of significantly improving soil sustainability, both in terms of decreased soil erosion rates and increased soil life expectancies

Analyzing the spatial distribution of PCB concentrations in soils using below-quantification limit data

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are highly toxic environmental pollutants that can accumulate in soils. We consider the problem of explaining and mapping the spatial distribution of PCBs using a spatial data set of 105 PCB-187 measurements from a region in the north of France. A large proportion of our data (35%) fell below a quantification limit (QL), meaning that their concentrations could not be determined to a sufficient degree of precision. Where a measurement fell below this QL, the inequality information was all that we were presented with. In this work, we demonstrate a full geostatistical analysis-bringing together the various components, including model selection, cross-validation, and mapping using censored data to represent the uncertainty that results from below-QL observations. We implement a Monte Carlo maximum likelihood approach to estimate the geostatistical model parameters. To select the best set of explanatory variables for explaining and mapping the spatial distribution of PCB-187 concentrations, we apply the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The AIC provides a trade-off between the goodness-of-fit of a model and its complexity (i.e., the number of covariates). We then use the best set of explanatory variables to help interpolate the measurements via a Bayesian approach, and produce maps of the predictions. We calculate predictions of the probability of exceeding a concentration threshold, above which the land could be considered as contaminated. The work demonstrates some differences between approaches based on censored data and on imputed data (in which the below-QL data are replaced by a value of half of the QL). Cross-validation results demonstrate better predictions based on the censored data approach, and we should therefore have confidence in the information provided by predictions from this method

At what price should Bordeaux wines be released?

This paper models optimal release prices of an experience good recurrently issued on markets. Using a sample of Bordeaux wines, we find that using a minimal number of intrinsic and extrinsic attributes is sufficient to explain a large proportion of release prices. We further observe a significant relationship between primary market prices and secondary market prices and general economic conditions. Release prices can deviate from secondary market prices in the short run but remain aligned over the long run. Finally, an out-of-sample analysis indicates that short-run mispricing directly affects the purchase behavior of customers

Black carbon contribution to organic carbon stocks in urban soil.

Soil holds 75% of the total organic carbon (TOC) stock in terrestrial ecosystems. This comprises ecosystem-derived organic carbon (OC) and black carbon (BC), a recalcitrant product of the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. Urban topsoils are often enriched in BC from historical emissions of soot and have high TOC concentrations, but the contribution of BC to TOC throughout the urban soil profile, at a regional scale is unknown. We sampled 55 urban soil profiles across the North East of England, a region with a history of coal burning and heavy industry. Through combined elemental and thermogravimetic analyses, we found very large total soil OC stocks (31-65 kg m(-2) to 1 m), exceeding typical values reported for UK woodland soils. BC contributed 28-39% of the TOC stocks, up to 23 kg C m(-2) to 1 m, and was affected by soil texture. The proportional contribution of the BC-rich fraction to TOC increased with soil depth, and was enriched in topsoil under trees when compared to grassland. Our findings establish the importance of urban ecosystems in storing large amounts of OC in soils and that these soils also capture a large proportion of BC particulates emitted within urban areas